By Adam Gardner / March 30, 2026
I left myself a note on Friday that simply said, “DO NOT OVERREACT. No matter what.”
Those words of wisdom floated through my head Saturday night when the Royals gave up 6 runs in the ninth inning against the Braves, losing on a walk-off grand slam. I reminded myself that it was the second game of the season, it was only March 28.
Then I thought about how 15 innings passed this season before the Royals scored a run. And I thought about Carlos Estévez and his low velocity.
But I vowed not to overreact. Every team loses games they probably should have won. The Royals will win some games this season they probably should lose. Things even out over the course of a long season, right? Everything is going to be OK.
Eric Hosmer made me question all that on Sunday afternoon. He mentioned during Sunday’s broadcast that Ned Yost used to tell the team that a division race could come down to 1 game, and a loss at the beginning of the season hurts just as much as a loss at the end of the season when it comes down to a tight race. Yost wanted his guys to be dialed in all season.
Great, just when I relaxed about Saturday night, here was a retired Big Leaguer getting me worked up again. If the Royals lose the AL Central by 1 game, I’m going to blame March 28.
Royals get their first win
The good news is the Royals won on Sunday afternoon, 4-1. Seth Lugo pitched efficiently, going 6.1 innings with just 77 pitches. He benefited from a strong wind hurting fly balls to center field as two hard-hit balls died on the warning track, falling harmlessly into Kyle Isbel’s glove.
Bobby Witt Jr. got a hit, an RBI and a walk, Vinnie Pasquantino had a couple hits and an RBI, and Carter Jensen had a home run and a sacrifice fly.
The bullpen looked pretty good outside of John Schreiber giving up a rocket of a homer in his inning of work. Matt Strahm has made two scoreless appearances already this year and I expect him to be an important part of the pen.
Lucas Erceg also had his second-straight scoreless appearance. Unlike Saturday night, though, Erceg’s inning came in the ninth and in a save situation. Estévez was in a boot after getting hit by a comebacker on Saturday night, making him unavailable on Sunday.
The Royals said they’d have Estévez get an MRI in Kansas City before announcing if he’d be available for Monday afternoon’s home opener. Regardless of the results of that MRI, the Royals have an Estévez situation to deal with.
Situation, not a problem (yet)
Speaking of the 2025 MLB saves leader, his same issues from Spring Training reared their ugly heads Saturday night.
Estévez recorded just 1 out in Saturday’s save situation. He gave up 4 hits, walked 2, and gave up 6 runs. If you’re curious, giving up 6 runs and recording just 1 out in your first outing of the season gives you a tidy 162.00 ERA. The good news is he should be able to lower that in his next outing. I hope.
He was a bit unlucky – the comebacker that hurt his foot could have been a game-ending double play if it doesn’t connect with him. On the other hand, the comebacker was going 103 mph, so it’s not like he induced weak contact.
There are two issues with Estévez right now – his velocity and his command. He threw 27 pitches on Saturday and just 12 of those were strikes. His fastball also is much slower than last year.
The broadcast talked about Estévez quite a bit during Sunday’s game. They mentioned he’s always been a slow starter and that last year his velocity ticked up as the season went on.
Ryan Lefebvre talked about how the Royals wanted Estévez to ramp up even earlier this year to try to mitigate his typical slow starts, especially since he’d be competing in the World Baseball Classic, but then he only pitched 1 inning in the WBC.
The spring plan to bypass a cold start clearly didn’t work. Estévez is farther behind pace this year than he was last year. Is he hurt? Is he just a year older, thus it takes longer than it used to in getting his body going? I can definitely understand that sort of problem because I have an entire stretching routing before bed and again when I wake up, and I’m not trying to throw a baseball past MLB hitters.
Or does he just not have “it” anymore? Can he get “it” back again?
The Royals broadcast wasn’t kidding when they said Estévez commonly gets out to a cold start. His career numbers show that March/April is his second-worst month when it comes to ERA. He has a 4.86 ERA in the first month of the season and that dips significantly to 3.55 in May.
(Somewhat scary: his worst month is September/October with an ERA of 5.12 Something to keep in mind should the Royals be in the postseason later this year.)
Estévez’s fastball was down 4.7 mph from his 2025 average according to Anne Rogers.
Royals Manager Matt Quatraro had his pitcher’s back, saying they wouldn’t “run from him.” That’s good, he should show confidence in his players to the media.
But I’m also pleased that Quatraro said Estévez definitely needs to get the velocity back. Sunday’s broadcast mentioned that Quatraro said he isn’t against using Estévez outside of the ninth inning role to work him back into things.
I’m happy KC doesn’t seem to be blindly trusting a pitcher just because he led the league in saves last season. They’re seeing the facts in front of them and I don’t think they’re going to wait forever to address the situation – hopefully before it becomes a problem.
We’ll see if the foot issue is something that lands Estévez on the IL, and we’ll have to wait to see how the Royals use him whether it’s this series or next week. I mentioned in last Monday’s post that the Royals have options if any of their arms falter – Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz have the makeup to help the bullpen.
Baseball in Kansas City
The Royals will start the home portion of their schedule this afternoon against the Minnesota Twins. Like the Royals, the Twins enter the series with a 1-2 record, having lost their opening series at Baltimore.
The Royals have Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans lined up to pitch this series. The Twins start the series with Simeon Woods Richardson but haven’t announced a plan for the games on Wednesday and Thursday (the teams have an off day Tuesday).
The Royals had good outings from Lugo and Michael Wacha against the Braves, but Ragans gave up 4 runs in 4 innings of work in the season opener. He struck out 5 batters, but had 4 walks and gave up 3 home runs. Ragans needs to fine tune his command to reach the level the Royals need him to be at.
I wish I could be at the K this afternoon but I can’t make it. My wife and I have tickets to the April 8 game against the White Sox, so we don’t have to wait too long to see a game in person this year.
I was excited for Sunday’s game because I had various things going on that kept me from watching the first two games of the season. The sun was out Sunday and, despite the wind, I was able to grill some chicken and hot dogs and enjoy a Royals win.
I’ll monitor today’s game, too, and I’m excited to see KC level their season record at 2-2. I’m trying to write it into existence – we all have to do our part.
High hopes
I’m not the only Royals fan giving out positive vibes. “The Athletic” released its annual MLB Hope-O-Meter and Royals fans who answered the survey were the fifth-most optimistic. The only four teams ahead of the Royals were the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners and Tigers.
The 94.5% optimism from Royals fans is up from 93.5% last year. There is still some scar tissue remaining from several losing seasons since 2000, as evidenced by the final note from one reader quoted in the story:
“The best American-born player in baseball? Paired with the WBC MVP as his lead-off man? Not to mention the other pieces that have steadily improved. Barring another abnormally cold year from the bats, I’m as optimistic as can be … while still knowing these are the Royals.”
The poor guy just had to throw that qualifier in there at the end. I totally get it, too. I’m really high on the Royals this year. However, I still have this little twinge of doubt that won’t go away.
Last on the list is the Twins, whose fans are just 4.3% optimistic and 95.7% pessimistic. The bulk of the Twins fans’ pessimism stems from distrust of the team owners.
It’s a brutal feeling when you don’t have confidence in the people that run your favorite team. I almost feel bad for them.
But I don’t feel bad. I hope KC sweeps them.
