By Adam Gardner | April 23, 2026
The Kansas City Royals losing streak is dead, for now, after a walk-off win Tuesday night.
Actually it was a run-off, a wild-pitch off really, that allowed Maikel Garcia to score from third with the winning run. It capped off a game in which the Royals had to fight back nearly the entire game.
Any win feels great after an eight-game losing streak, but Tuesday’s game showed the team still has fight in it. KC showed fight again Wednesday afternoon in a loss, but couldn’t quite make up ground after a 6-run Orioles inning. They aren’t giving up after such a bad start to the season. It was cathartic to watch after the mess that was Monday night’s loss. Let’s jump into that.
Analytics … or something like that
Take a look at social media and you might think Royals Manager Matt Quatraro spends each game in the corner of the dugout, menacingly twirling his evil mustache as he plots a new way for the Royals to lose.
That’s an exaggeration of course, but there are some vocal fans who seem to be convinced that Quatraro has no right to manage even a little league team, let alone in KC. We’re talking about a guy who took the Royals back to the postseason for the first time in almost a decade in 2024, then followed that up with an 82-80 record last season.
I’m in the camp that MLB managers get too much praise for winning games and too much blame for losing games. There are strategies managers can deploy during a game to put a thumb on the scale in one way or another, but so much of every outcome is up to the players.
A manager could make a perfect tactical decision and watch it fail. They could make the dumbest decision possible and watch it work spectacularly.
Thus, we talk about small sample size. I’ve mentioned it a few times here on “The Looping Liner” and I think a good portion of people understand the concept, but it boils down to data becoming more reliable with the more information you have.
Quatraro and the Royals want to use informed thinking with lineup and pitching decisions. It’s why we see certain players sitting even if they had a good game the day prior, and it’s why they make certain bullpen decisions.
What’s right when everything is wrong?
Take Monday’s game. Lucas Erceg is a relief pitcher the Royals *need* to depend on. He has been good in high-leverage situations in the past, and they certainly need him to be good this year.
Q had Erceg take the ninth inning holding onto a 1-run lead facing the top of the Baltimore Orioles lineup. This situation is exactly when you want your best bullpen arm.
The problem is Erceg can’t seem to finish anyone off right now. He walked the leadoff man and then picked him off. That was followed by another couple walks sandwiched around a ground out, then a game-tying single on a 1-2 count.
It was the right decision and it just didn’t work.
Daniel Lynch IV breezed through the Orioles in the 10th inning and struck out Gunnar Henderson to lead off the 11th. He recorded 4 outs on 12 pitches but Q lifted him for John Schreiber to get a righty-on-righty matchup with a runner on second (remember that teams start with a runner on second base in extra innings).
I was not alone as a Royals fan that hated this move. Lynch looked good and since he’s transitioned from trying to be a starting pitcher into a full-time reliever, his splits against right- and left-handed batters are very even.
Yes, Taylor Ward does hit lefties much better than righties, and Schreiber did get Ward out for the second out of the inning. But next up for Baltimore was another left-handed batter. Schreiber does not get left-handed batters out very well.
The ensuing Dylan Beavers RBI single off of Schreiber wasn’t a surprise. It came out of a situation when Q didn’t see the big picture and made the wrong decision.
It definitely had me tweeting out my frustration Monday night.
Comedy or tragedy
Watching the Royals do everything they could to lose Monday night’s game made me laugh. It was either that or cry. The broadcast put up the box score heading into the bottom of the ninth and I couldn’t help but laugh.
Baltimore had 1 run on 2 hits, the Royals had 1 run on 11 hits. KC got on base all game and could not score. Three times they loaded the bases and didn’t score a run in any of those innings.
Q made a puzzling move down 2-1 in the 11th inning. Isaac Collins started the inning on second base and was sacrificed over to third base. At face value it makes since to get the tying run in position to score on a sacrifice fly.
But the Royals had Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. coming to the plate. Either one of them could get a hit and drive a runner in from second base without needing to sacrifice an out in the process. That’s exactly what would have happened when Witt singled home Collins on a ball that would have scored him from second base.
Game tied, 2 outs, Witt on first and struggling Vinnie Pasquantino at the plate. Extra inning rules state the player before the first hitter due up the following inning is the runner that starts the inning on second base.
With that in mind, Witt *must* try to steal second base in that situation. If he’s safe, he’s in immediate scoring position. If he’s out, it means the fastest guy in baseball would start the next inning on second base with a fresh set of outs for the Royals.
Witt didn’t steal and it didn’t matter because Pasquantino flied out. It was an opportunity wasted anyway.
The Orioles went on to score 5 runs in the 12th inning, including a grand slam. Then, and only then, were the Royals able to score some runs as they plated 3 in a losing effort in the bottom of the 12th. All those opportunities earlier in the game but they wait until they’re down 5 to do anything. It’ll make you laugh ‘til you cry.
What is your actual point, Adam?
Matt Quatraro is trying to make moves to put his players in position to succeed. I don’t believe the reasoning behind each of those moves on Monday was sound.
Erceg in the ninth: great move, didn’t work. Pulling Lynch for a right-on-right matchup when a lefty was due up next: defensible, but I didn’t like it. Going with Schreiber for that right-on-right when you know he’s got a lefty next and he’s bad against lefties: clearly a bad decision.
We can go down the line and nitpick everything but we’re dealing with the tiniest sample sizes when you talk about one game. People want to cry out against the “analytics” that Q’s decisions are based on, but it’s not fair to pull out one tiny slice of a very large season.
Over the course of 162 games, things are going to average out. Take one slice and Q could look like the greatest tactical genius of all time, and he can look like he’s never seen a baseball game before – it all comes down to how players execute.
And that’s what I keep circling back to when I think about Monday night. None of those decisions in extra innings ever have to happen if Lucas Erceg can get one more strike against two different hitters. It’s not even a 1-run game in the ninth inning if the Royals can get one or two hits in their several chances with the bases loaded earlier in the game.
But they didn’t get those hits, and Erceg didn’t get one more strike, and decisions had to be made. I hope going forward there is a little more “feel” mixed in with the matchups because I would love to see what would have happened in Lynch hadn’t been pulled.
Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen
It’s tough to decide how exactly to handle young players, but I’m not a fan of what the Royals are doing with Cags and Jensen. Both are left-handed batters and both are being used primarily against right-handed pitching.
As of Thursday, Cags has 39 more plate appearances against righties than lefties; Jensen has 41 more against righties than lefties. Cags is hitting righties better, while Jensen has a higher batting average against lefties but hitting for more power against righties.
I understand the desire to put them in the best situation to succeed, but I hate that KC is taking their two best young hitters and turning them solely into platoon hitters. I want to find out exactly who Caglianone and Jensen are as major league hitters. Put them in the fire – let’s find out if they can hit MLB lefties.
It’s a delicate balancing act developing young players and still trying to be successful at the major league level. But the long-term success of the franchise is directly correlated to the value of Cags and Jensen.
Don’t force them into platoon players. Give them time to develop and learn.
Next opportunity
The Royals are off today and start up a home series against the Angels Friday night.
It’s a new opportunity to right the ship. Vinnie Pasquantino homered and doubled in Wednesday’s loss, so maybe he’s moving past his cold start to the season? We can hope.
The Royals also announced their location for the new park on Wednesday, settling into the Crown Center area. They released renderings of what the park could look like in the area, but keep in mind that a lot can change with this. Still, the skyline past centerfield would look pretty cool.
